Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta
Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Tuesday, 17 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
1 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 37.0%
Draw: 35.0%
Away: 28.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
59.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
1x2 — draw@ 3.5
Expected Value: 21.0%
Both teams are closely matched in form and defensive solidity, with Atalanta showing strong recent away performances and Dortmund inconsistent in Europe. The model gives a slightly higher draw probability than bookmaker's implied odds, creating a small value edge.
over_under_2_5 — over@ 3.3
Expected Value: 12.0%
While both teams have a recent trend towards lower scoring games, their season over 2.5 rates are high (Dortmund 75%, Atalanta 62.5%). The odds for over 2.5 are generous relative to model probability, representing a marginal value.
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta meet in a Champions League tie with both sides showing mixed form. Dortmund have been inconsistent in Europe but have attacking potential at home, while Atalanta are coming off a strong domestic run and have improved defensively, especially away. Both teams have struggled to score in some recent matches, suggesting a cautious first half and a tight contest overall. The draw is a realistic outcome, with a slight lean to under 2.5 goals but value on the over at current odds.
Key Factors
- ▪Both sides have 2 wins in their last 3 matches and similar season records.
- ▪Dortmund's home attack (2.5 goals/game at home) faces Atalanta's away defense (1.25 conceded/game).
- ▪Atalanta have 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and a 37.5% season clean sheet rate.
- ▪Dortmund have failed to score in 2 of their last 5; Atalanta in 2 of their last 5.
- ▪Head-to-head is limited but historically close, with a 1-1 and 3-2 in 2018.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either team.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Small sample size for H2H and some derived stats.
- ⚠️ Recent match stats (shots, xG) incomplete for some games.
- ⚠️ Champions League knockout context may make teams more cautious.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.