Derby vs Stoke City Prediction
Championship · England
Derby
Stoke City
📍 Pride Park, Derby
🗓️ Monday, 6 Apr 2026 at 14:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 51.0%
Draw: 29.0%
Away: 20.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56.0% confidence
💰 Recommended Bets(3)
over_under_2_5 — under@ 3.7
EV: 18.0%
Model gives a 45% chance for under 2.5 goals, but the odds imply only 27%. Both teams have a season over 2.5 rate below 50%, and Derby's home matches often see fewer goals. Value on the under.
1x2 — home@ 1.44
EV: -7.0%
Derby in stronger form, better home record, and higher league position. Odds are a bit short, but home win is most likely outcome.
btts — yes@ 1.68
EV: -4.0%
Stoke have scored in 4 of last 5, Derby have conceded in 3 of last 5 at home. Both teams' matches see BTTS frequently.
Match Analysis
Derby come into this fixture in strong form, winning 4 of their last 5 and pushing for a playoff spot. Stoke City, by contrast, have struggled recently, with just 1 win in their last 5 and a poor away record. Derby's home attack has been consistent, while Stoke's defence has shown vulnerabilities, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last 5. The head-to-head is relatively balanced, but Derby's home advantage and superior form make them slight favourites. Expect a competitive match, with Derby likely edging it but Stoke posing a threat on the break.
Key Factors
- →Derby have won 4 of their last 5 matches (form: WWLWW)
- →Stoke have lost 3 of their last 5 and have not kept a clean sheet in that run
- →Derby average 1.44 goals scored per game at home; Stoke concede 1.1 per away game
- →Stoke's away record is weak (6W, 4D, 10L, 17GF, 22GA)
- →Head-to-head is balanced, but Derby are unbeaten in last 3 home H2H
- →No major injuries reported for either side
- →Both teams' matches have a moderate over 2.5 goal rate (~47-49%)
Risk Notes
- ⚠️Some missing detailed stats for recent Stoke matches (shots, lineups)
- ⚠️Championship is a volatile league; upsets are common
- ⚠️Stoke's attack can be unpredictable, as seen in 3-3 draw with Ipswich
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.