Liverpool
Brighton
Anfield, Liverpool
Saturday, 14 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 0
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 68.0%
Draw: 21.0%
Away: 11.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
74.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
over_under_2_5 — over@ 2.95
Expected Value: 21.0%
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (41%) is higher than the implied probability from odds (34%), and Liverpool's attack at home is strong, with 100% over 2.5 in cup/season matches.
1x2 — Liverpool@ 1.2
Expected Value: -1.0%
Liverpool have a strong home record, Brighton are out of form and rarely score away. However, odds are short, so value is marginal.
Match Analysis
Liverpool come into this FA Cup tie at Anfield in strong form, having won three of their last five matches, including a 6-0 Champions League win and a 4-1 home victory in the previous FA Cup round. Brighton, by contrast, are on a poor run with no wins in their last five league games, struggling for goals and failing to keep a clean sheet. Recent head-to-heads also favour Liverpool, especially at Anfield. Expect Liverpool to dominate possession and chances, with Brighton likely to sit deep and struggle to create. Liverpool's attack should eventually break through, but Brighton's defensive approach may keep the scoreline respectable.
Key Factors
- ▪Liverpool's home form is strong with high goals scored and 100% over 2.5 goals in recent cup matches.
- ▪Brighton are winless in their last 5, averaging just 0.6 goals scored per game.
- ▪Liverpool have not failed to score in any of their last 5, while Brighton have failed to score in 2 of 5.
- ▪Head-to-head at Anfield favours Liverpool, who have won the last two home meetings.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either side.
- ▪Liverpool average 2.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in their last 5, Brighton concede 1.2 and score just 0.6.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Limited sample size for both teams in the FA Cup this season.
- ⚠️ Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for several recent games.
- ⚠️ Cup matches can be unpredictable due to squad rotation or changes in motivation.
- ⚠️ No current league standings provided, so league context is inferred from form only.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.