Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
Stade Louis II, Monaco
Tuesday, 17 Feb 2026 at 20:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
0 - 2
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 13.0%
Draw: 23.0%
Away: 64.0%
Both Teams to Score
No
71.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
over_under_2_5 — over@ 2.95
Expected Value: 20.9%
Model probability (0.41) for over 2.5 goals is higher than the implied probability (0.339) from odds 2.95, offering a positive value edge. PSG's attack is strong, and Monaco's defense, while improved, can be exposed if the game opens up.
1x2 — away@ 1.2
Expected Value: 8.0%
PSG are in much stronger form, have a superior away record, and Monaco have struggled offensively. The away win probability (0.64) is slightly above the implied probability, supporting a moderate value bet.
Match Analysis
Paris Saint Germain come into this Champions League tie as clear favorites, boasting a potent attack and much stronger recent form than Monaco. Monaco have tightened up defensively, keeping four clean sheets in their last five, but have struggled to score, failing to net in three of those games. PSG's away record in Europe is solid, and their attacking firepower should eventually break Monaco's resistance, especially as the game progresses. Expect Monaco to start cautiously, but PSG's quality should tell over 90 minutes.
Key Factors
- ▪PSG average 2.63 goals scored per Champions League game, Monaco only 1.0.
- ▪Monaco have kept 4 clean sheets in their last 5 but failed to score in 3.
- ▪PSG have not failed to score in any of their last 5 and have a strong away record.
- ▪Head-to-head: PSG have won 5 of the last 10 meetings, including 3 of the last 4 away at Monaco.
- ▪Monaco's home record in Europe: 1W 3D 0L, but only 3 goals scored in 4 home games.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ Some recent matches lack full stat coverage, reducing model confidence in underlying xG trends.
- ⚠️ Monaco's defensive improvement may be overstated due to weaker opposition in recent Ligue 1 fixtures.
- ⚠️ PSG's attacking stats are strong, but their shots and shots on target averages in the last 5 are modest.
- ⚠️ Champions League knockout dynamics can lead to more cautious first halves.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.