ChampionshipEngland

Preston

vs

Watford

Deepdale, Preston

Saturday, 14 Feb 2026 at 15:00

Prediction Summary

Predicted Score

1 - 1

Match Odds (1X2)

Home: 34.0%

Draw: 38.0%

Away: 28.0%

Both Teams to Score

No

63.0% confidence

💰Recommended Bets

1x2draw@ 3.15

Expected Value: 6.0%

6
/ 10
Stake:
1 unit

Both teams are struggling for goals and wins, with similar defensive records and a high draw rate in H2H (4/10), plus both sides have drawn 11 league games this season. The model's draw probability is higher than bookmaker's implied probability, offering a small value edge.

Match Analysis

This is a mid-table clash between two sides in poor recent form, both struggling to score and with low attacking output in their last five matches. Preston have a slight edge at home, but Watford's away record and defensive solidity suggest a tight, low-scoring contest. Injuries for both sides affect squad depth but do not dramatically shift the balance. Given the high frequency of draws in their recent H2H and season records, a stalemate is likely.

Key Factors

  • Both teams have scored just 0.4 goals per game in their last 5 matches.
  • Preston have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, Watford in 3 of their last 5 as well.
  • Preston's home record (7W, 5D, 4L) is stronger than Watford's away (3W, 6D, 6L), but not dominant.
  • Recent H2H: 4 of last 10 meetings drawn, last meeting ended 1-1.
  • Both teams average under 1.25 goals scored per game this season.
  • Injuries to key players for both sides, but no major stars missing.
  • Bookmaker odds overestimate BTTS and over 2.5 goals compared to model.

Risk Notes

  • ⚠️ Some missing match stats for Watford's recent games reduce confidence in shot/corner estimates.
  • ⚠️ Lineups not confirmed; late injury news could affect balance.
  • ⚠️ Low-scoring matches are more prone to random events (penalties, red cards).

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.