Southampton
Leicester
, Southampton
Saturday, 14 Feb 2026 at 15:00
Prediction Summary
Predicted Score
2 - 1
Match Odds (1X2)
Home: 47.0%
Draw: 29.0%
Away: 24.0%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54.0% confidence
💰Recommended Bets
btts — yes@ 3.8
Expected Value: 105.2%
Both teams have scored in 4 of Leicester's last 5 and 2 of Southampton's last 5. Recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring. Model probability (54%) is much higher than implied (26.3%), creating strong value.
1x2 — draw@ 3.75
Expected Value: 8.7%
Southampton are in better form but Leicester have a strong H2H record and the model sees a tight game. Draw probability (29%) is slightly above market implied (26.7%).
Match Analysis
Southampton enter this FA Cup tie in strong form, unbeaten in their last five and coming off a dramatic 4-3 away win at Leicester. Leicester, by contrast, are on a four-game losing streak and have struggled defensively, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last five. However, H2H history suggests Leicester are capable of competing, and recent meetings have been high-scoring. Expect Southampton to control more of the play at home, but Leicester's counter-attacking threat and cup motivation could keep things close. Goals are likely, with both teams possessing enough attacking quality to find the net.
Key Factors
- ▪Southampton are unbeaten in their last five (WWWDW), with three clean sheets and no failed-to-score matches.
- ▪Leicester are on a four-game losing streak, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last five.
- ▪Recent H2H meetings have been high-scoring (last two: 4-3 Southampton, 3-0 Southampton).
- ▪Southampton's attack has averaged 1.8 goals in last five; Leicester have averaged 1.2 but failed to keep a clean sheet.
- ▪No significant injuries reported for either side.
Risk Notes
- ⚠️ No detailed home/away splits for this season due to limited FA Cup data.
- ⚠️ Some missing match stats (shots, possession) for Leicester's recent games reduces model confidence slightly.
- ⚠️ Standings data is missing; motivation and league position inferred from form and H2H.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk. Always gamble responsibly.